Pope Benedict XVI resigned today and a few news programs in Australia wanted to discuss what it means. The first was a national radio program The Wire. The second was the local television network NBN, which aired a short comment on the 6pm news. Two things of note:
1. They were interested in the likelihood of a south american or african pope. On the one hand, the demographics support this. According to the numbers compiled recently by the Pew Forum, christianity is now a majority southern hemisphere religion. Pewforum.org has an excellent interactive map which compiles the numbers and allows you to easily see where the tradition is located. For instance, roughly 48% of roman catholics live in the americas, with 17% in the north and 31% in the south. Roughly 16% live in Africa (only 0.5% of those in the north), 12% in Asia Pacific, and roughly 24% live in Europe. So, if leadership represented the constituency you'd expect to see the americas play a part, and particular South America. But the actual politics of the Vatican can't be understood by the demographics. So, while some may speak of an Obama effect, where the leader represents a growing multicultural constituency, the likelihood is that it will be more of the Justin Welby effect, the new rather mainstay Archbishop of Canterbury in the Anglican Communion.
2. The other interest concerns Benedict XVI's legacy. I tend to think that he is likely to be remembered as a rather paradoxical pope. That is, he was a strange set of contradictions in a single person. For instance, he maintained all the symbolic power of the medieval papacy in a way rather out of sync with the modern age, e.g. the silk and gold vestments, the relics, and St. Peter's Basilica. At the same time, in the past few months he was seen tapping the first papal tweet into an iPad. The media became as interested in how many followers he had on Twitter as he did in the church at large. Whereas John Paul II integrated the media into the symbolic power of the papacy, Benedict XVI seemed to hold them apart. Another example is the 2006 Regensberg Address, on "Faith, Reason and the University." Here, he made a compelling argument for the relation between faith and reason. At the same time, he fumbled a negative citation from a 14th century Byzantine Emperor, deeply offending Muslims around the world. Lastly, whereas John Paul II integrated suffering and death into the papal witness itself, Benedect XVI seems to have held the office in tension with his frailty as an eighty-nine year old man, breaking with 600 years of tradition in his resignation.
In short, Christianity is fast becoming a southern hemisphere religion. How these demographics will play out in the next leader of the roman catholic church remains to be seen. In any case, the legacy of this particularly paradoxical pope may be the contradictions he held in tension. This, in the end, may be a vital lesson for the future of this institution.